Karnataka: A Crucial Swing State

India Votes 2024

Karnataka elects 28 members to the Lok Sabha and is considered a crucial swing state (to borrow a term from American politics) in the forthcoming elections as the INDIA Alliance is hoping to make major gains here. But if history is any indicator, then the BJP has an advantage.

In the past four parliamentary elections since 2004, the BJP has managed to win more seats than the Congress. In the elections of 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019, the BJP won 18, 19, 17 and 25 seats respectively. In the 2019 elections, the BJP, riding on a national wave that favoured the reelection of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, secured a staggering 51.7 percent of the vote share in Karnataka. The lone independent MP who was elected also subsequently extended her support to the BJP which means that the party now has 26 seats in Karnataka. While the electoral history of the past two decades favours the saffron party as Karnataka gets ready to vote in two phases on April 26 and May 7, the Indian National Congress is hoping to regain its past glory in Karnataka. The party which won a thumping majority in the Legislative Assembly elections last year is banking on two issues; its successful implementation of its five guarantees and the injustice done to the State in the devolution of funds from the Union government.

The panel that has been curated carefully will discuss whether Karnataka will follow the same pattern that it has set in place from the past 20 years of preferring the BJP or will it witness a change and provide a boost to the INDIA Alliance. The panel will also dwell on other salient themes such as why Karnataka remains an outlier in south India as far as support to the BJP is concerned and the significance of the BJP’s alliance with the Janata Dal (Secular). Leading up to the elections, both the main parties in the fray have witnessed factional wrangles accompanying the selection of candidates while they have also been accused of perpetuating dynastic politics.

This event is a part of BIC’s Election series.